Comments on: Iain Dale reveals the depth of statistical knowledge of the denier class http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/ A voice of reason against illiberal nonsense Tue, 03 Apr 2012 03:19:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: In Praise of…William Hague? « Bad Conscience http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-1549 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:03:31 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-1549 [...] leadership for not being pressured by the rampant denialism of their grass-roots, frequently evidenced on websites like Iain Dale’s Diary and [...]

]]> By: Liberal Conspiracy » ClimateHate – the new battleground http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-1441 Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:09:45 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-1441 [...] easy to dismiss. Even I could dismiss some denialism, in an hour, when one of Iain Dale's readers impressed him with selective [...]

]]> By: ClimateHate « Freethinking Economist http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-1431 Thu, 28 Jan 2010 21:53:12 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-1431 [...] dismiss.   Even I could dismiss some denialism, in an hour, when one of Iain Dale’s readers impressed him with selective [...]

]]> By: The Right and Economics « Freethinking Economist http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-1037 Tue, 05 Jan 2010 17:59:48 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-1037 [...] various administrations to prove that the Right is all at sea, economics-wise.  As someone who has lambasted selective data on Climate change, I must point out how arbitrary this is: taking just a few data [...]

]]> By: freethinkingeconomist http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-976 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:30:38 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-976 I will try to watch that!

Yes, there seem to be some clear patterns, though I do not know the science well enough, the lags etc, to know whether the dip in the 1960s meant anything. I see this whole matter as about tail risk, rather than the averages.

Irony piled on irony my fingers are too numb to continue . . .

]]> By: Neil Craig http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-975 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:27:15 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-975 I do subnscribe to that concept of scienc. I don’t know what you mean about it being officially changed unless you are referring to a very silly article by Mike Hume about “post normal science” in which he says that “science” must be whatever politicians say it is.

The serious part of your comment is simply a pointless fact free personal attack. I acknowledge it as being the best the eco-fascists can now manage.

]]> By: Paul Sagar http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-974 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:03:56 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-974 “n. For a theory to be scientific it has to be falsifiable & the theory that Hansen is somethin g other than a charlatan is clearly falsified by this (& also by the fact that he was involved in the ice age scare previously.)”

well, if you subscribe to a concept of science not held in the academy since the 1960s…

But seriously Neil, did you know that as long as your head is under the duvet, it doesn’t
matter if your body is sticking out: if you can’t see them, they can’t see you!

]]> By: MJW http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-969 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:37:26 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-969 Poo-pooing people pointing to old out of date predictions does leave one open to the criticism that today’s predictions will be old and out of date tomorrow; and begs the question of why should we not look at the accuracy of previous iterations when considering the accuracy of those currently being offered? Has anyone actually done any serious work on whether the predictions have become more accurate in the last 20 years, 10 years, 5 years, 2 years? Has anyone tracked predictive iteration to iteration against the empirical reality (without having to bend the prima facie data to breaking point with statistical treatments or selecting data from statistically invalid samples); if not then simply skipping to the next iteration of prediction means judgement on the accuracy of the prediction is perpetually suspended one iteration away?

]]> By: Neil Craig http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-967 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 10:47:16 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-967 Firstly while recognising your claim that it is false to say Hansen said that, as representing the absolute pinnacle of honesty of which most supporters of warming are capabl;e it is, of course, a total, complete & deliberate lie. He did say that untruth.

Your 2nd point – predictions proving wrong can never be taken as evidence that the predictors aren’t now wholly correct is obviously silly. I assume that in another 20 years you will be saying thatthe predictions made today proving wrong don’t count & we should still believe whatever lie you are trying to sell by then. For a theory to be scientific it has to be falsifiable & the theory that Hansen is somethin g other than a charlatan is clearly falsified by this (& also by the fact that he was involved in the ice age scare previously.)

]]> By: Alex http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2009/12/21/iain-dale-reveals-the-depth-of-statistical-knowledge-of-the-denier-class/#comment-960 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 01:14:26 +0000 http://freethinkingeconomist.com/?p=1118#comment-960 “As of last year it was 0.1C & falling compared to Hansen’s prediction of 20 years previously. Obviously the BBC reported this in the proper way – not.
http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.com/2008/07/warming-predictions-20-years-later.html”

This is false:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/

Moreover, why exactly are you bringing up Hansen’s 21 year old projections? You’d be a fool if you thought 21 year old science was cutting edge.

“If there were clear evidence of catastrophic warming it would be obvious – that is why it is called catastrophic.”

Wait, you think people are claiming catastrophe has already happened????? Wow, no wonder denialists suffer so much cognitive dissonance.

(I should point out that “catastrophic” is a subjective term. Few climatologists are predicting “catastrophic warming” – the big unknown is the greenhouse gas deposits in the tundra that might get released, and if they do, then we will get catastrophic warming, but it’s pretty damn hard to predict if that will happen under current science. However, if we assume such deposits aren’t released, the likely warming of around 2 or 3 degrees doesn’t sound “catastrophic”, but the impact of that warming could be “catastrophic” (depending on your definition of “catastrophic”). Certainly plenty of people will die. I dunno how “catastrophic” the predicted effects have to be before the right can no longer shrug their shoulders at it.)

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