It is looking pretty dicey for the Bank and it’s inflation-fighting reputation. Read Jeremy Warner (Does the inflation target actually mean anything any more?) and above all the point made clear in Simon Ward’s post yesterday (UK CPI inflation 3 percentage points above BoE year-ago forecast). Here is a graph from last year’s May Inflation [...]
Posts Tagged ‘Economics’
18 May
I won’t deny it: the inflation figures suck
Here is the BBC story; here is where you can get the data. The BBC mentions volcanic ash driving up Food prices. But as far as I can see, the things that rose hardest from March to April were not particularly vulnerable to delayed flights: (correct me if I am wrong: I did that graph [...]
16 May
Crazy spending, or our lifeline?
To no great surprise, David Cameron has announced an immediate audit of the ‘crazy’ spending of Labour’s last years in power. Politically, this no doubt makes great sense – “look what those idiots got up to” is perfect scene-setting for the blood-letting that will follow. But what worries me is what sort of a narrative [...]
14 May
Some stuff to add learning and entertainment to a sunny weekend
Sorry, I am in a sunny mood. Martin Wolf is also infected with the sun, because he comes out with a surprisingly generous verdict on The economic legacy of Mr Brown. The general theme is that his mistakes were shared by most of the economic policymaking world, and Wolf makes this telling point: “In retrospect, [...]
14 May
‘Labour’s electoral strategy’ – and a call for Empiricism
Given that the next election is possibly 5 years away, am I the only one to find arguments about Labour’s election strategy just a little premature? I keep trying to remember what such discussions must have been like for the Lib Dems in 2005, and then find I can’t. Because five years is such a [...]
13 May
Now is not a time for uber-German monetary policy
The FT reports on the ECB’s seeming conversion to QE: Backlash stirs in Frankfurt. “Germans are clear about the job of a central banker: to fight inflation, and nothing else … The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung described the turnaround – announced at 3:15am on Monday after a late-night meeting of European finance ministers – as [...]
12 May
Some spiffing quotes, what
Gosh, I’m beginning to sound like a Tory already! help From Megan McArdle of the Atlantic – a wise and self-doubting piece about, well, Greece and intellectual triumphalism. Could apply this to the whole Credit Crunch analysis: You cannot graft rich-world policy onto emerging markets … Conservative fiscal and monetary policy… -emerges from the social [...]
11 May
Game changing Bazooka or the biggest dose of Moral Hazard ever?
Believe it or not, I have been reading up on the Greek/European/World scenario as a way of taking my mind off fingernail-destroying horsetrading over here in Westminster. Yes, those perfidious Europeans used the cover of a protracted UK negotiation over AV Plus to sneak out a 750bn Euro guarantee fund. Several points are worth making, [...]
10 May
Before anyone panics or misinterprets it
… the gilt is down one point today (to 116 on the June futures, still 4 points above its level in Feb) …. NOT because or solely because of hung parliament negotiations ‘dragging on’ but because there is a huge relief rally in equities, a return to risky assets, etc. The FTSE is up 2-3% [...]
9 May
No idea what this all adds up to
To file under why Labour recovered/Lib Dems lost ThoughCowardsFlinch – Sheer class, people cheering Gordon Brown. Solidarity The Times: Liberal policies, including ‘amnesty’; failure of Lib Dem activists to congregate Rennard-style in lower hanging fruit; Cornish county council; Alex commenting here: “The difference in Lib Dem vote (high 20s down to 23%) was mostly due [...]
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