From Matthew T’s site, a chap who adds high quality comments to this one. I think research into this area could fuel a few phD theses, on the subject of whether the Conservatives face a secular fall in their safe vote. Reflect on the fact that they did better under Major, during a recession, after [...]
Posts Tagged ‘UK Politics’
9 May
No idea what this all adds up to
To file under why Labour recovered/Lib Dems lost ThoughCowardsFlinch – Sheer class, people cheering Gordon Brown. Solidarity The Times: Liberal policies, including ‘amnesty’; failure of Lib Dem activists to congregate Rennard-style in lower hanging fruit; Cornish county council; Alex commenting here: “The difference in Lib Dem vote (high 20s down to 23%) was mostly due [...]
8 May
Oh, how existential risks focus the mind
At several points in the last few months it has seemed ‘obvious’ to armchair politicians like me that, post election: Labour would indulge in lunatic blood-letting; lose the mantle of CentreLeft-ness to the Lib Dems; do something daft like elect Ismizing Cruddas or not-awfully-popular Balls as leader and that, from a Lib Dem perspective it [...]
8 May
I used to be furious at the voting system; now I’m a bit scared of it
I mean, check out the actual results. Conservatives: increased vote share by about 12% of their previous total (32.2-> 36). Increased seats by over 45% (from 209 to 306). Labour: reduced vote share by about 17% of their previous total, lost 25% of their seats. Liberal Democrats: increased their vote share by 4-5% of previous [...]
7 May
Coalition of the miserable
Consider what a few days can do to the expected seat results. This is from the market: Quite simply, Labour gained 35 seats over where they were generally expected to be for the whole time from Duffy to the Tooting Declaration. They took 15 of these seats from a Conservative total that was expected to [...]
7 May
Questions I would love to know the answer to
My sleep deprived brain would struggle to understand these matters when on top form. But right now, I have no idea: What did Labour do to switch momentum from Lib Dems back to Labour? In Islington South, Edinburgh South, the City of Durham, Oxford East and most tragically Hampstead and Kilburn they seemed, somehow, to [...]
7 May
Instant observations
In no particular order: I am not going to commentate on what the LibDems should do. I have no idea. It seems clear that LD + Lab does not constitute a working majority. But they may well have more combined than the Conservatives, and certainly do in popular vote share. This is difficult. If the [...]
6 May
Two interesting reads for Election day
1. The FT. Britain is not broken, it has been getting better. It does make you wonder about their Conservative endorsement, huh? FT research shows that even the most deprived local authorities have shown signs of improvement over recent years when looking at figures ranging from crime and truancy to teenage pregnancies and children living [...]
5 May
Several more reasons that I am voting LibDem
Let’s cut to the chase Economics No doubt Gordon Brown feels aggreived – he did the right things over the financial crisis, and was right in allowing the deficit to rise to accommodate private sector dissaving. LeftOutside has a collection of quotes from leading US economists wondering aloud about why we would ditch a premier, [...]
5 May
Vital geeky question: the manner of the Labour vote collapse
Westminster Blog calls it Wonk Wars. Fair enough: this is wonky. But I think it matters. Nate Silver has shaken up psephology in the UK by proposing a different approach to uniform swing and instead going for ‘proportional swing’. By this I mean: instead of, say, taking 5% off every Labour vote share in the [...]
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